Thailand deserves a break
By Tan Siok Choo
The Sundaily, 13 July 2014
WASHINGTON should give Thailand's General Prayuth chan-ocha a break. On May 22, the army chief launched a coup against Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
Under the timeline announced by Prayuth last Friday, a new cabinet will be appointed by September this year but elections are unlikely to be held before October 2015.
Predictably, the US warned the military takeover could have negative implications for bilateral ties and called for early elections to reflect the will of the people and for the release of detained politicians.
In a show of displeasure, Washington terminated the already minimal military aid and called off some military exercises with Thailand.
At best, this politically correct approach risks being self-defeating for the US and, at worst, it could prompt Thailand to pivot closer towards China.
Washington should adopt a more nuanced stance towards the Thai coup for several reasons.
First, although in theory, military coups against an elected government should be condemned, history suggests the Thai variety, particularly after 2006, has been largely benign and after an interregnum, most coup leaders have returned power to civilians.
Second, Prayuth ended nearly seven months of political paralysis in the kingdom.
Protests erupted on Nov 4 last year after an amnesty bill was passed. Many believed this enactment was aimed at allowing Yingluck's brother, Thaksin Shinawatra and de facto leader of the Pheu Thai party, to return to Thailand without the risk of being jailed.
In August 2008, Thaksin left the kingdom to avoid appearing in court to face corruption charges.
In response to the protests, Yingluck called for elections on Feb 4 this year. Although 90% of polling stations were operating normally, according to the BBC, the Constitutional Court invalidated the elections on March 21 this year because voting wasn't held nationwide.
Third, continuing political stasis was damaging the Thai economy.
In the first quarter of this year, economic growth shrank by 2.1% from the previous quarter.
Tourism, which accounts for about 7% of the Thai economy, has been badly affected by the political turmoil. According to STR Global, hotel-occupancy rates from January to May this year fell by 15% from the same period last year.
Government spending was also constrained by the political imbroglio.
In an astonishing development, in February this year, state-owned Krung Thai Bank announced it would not lend money to the Finance Ministry for its rice-buying programme due to concerns about the Yingluck government's legal status.
Buying rice at a significantly higher than market price fortified political support for the Pheu Thai party among rice farmers but strained government finances.
Additionally, among 11 widely traded Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg, the baht was among the worst performers over the last six months, an article by Bloomberg notes.
Fourth, Washington's call for early elections overlooks one salient fact.
Since 2001, Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister, Yingluck have won every single election held in Thailand – in 2001, 2005, 2007, 2011 and 2014.
Conversely, Thaksin was ousted by a coup in September 2006 while Yingluck resigned on May 7 after she was found guilty of an abuse of power by the Constitutional Court.
One major reason for Thailand's continuing political impasse since 2006 is the inability of the opposition party, the Democrats, to garner support from a majority of voters.
This has prompted the Democrats to call for electoral reforms as a pre-condition for participating in an election – a call that Prayuth appears ready to concede.
Fifth, Washington's hardline stance could prompt Bangkok to review its foreign policy priorities.
As The Nation noted in an article, "Bangkok has been pushed toward China, thanks to western condemnation of the coup, a stark contrast to Beijing's empathy … Thailand's foreign-relations horizon is looking quite intriguing."
Last month, a delegation of Thai military commanders visited China for talks on regional training and joint training exercises, a recent Reuters article noted.
Sixth, Thailand is the only Asean country that doesn't have competing claims against China in the South China Sea. This removes one possible impediment to closer ties between Bangkok and Beijing.
Moreover, with its rapidly growing economy and rising consumer income, China offers a faster-growing market for Thai goods and services than the US.
Seventh, the monarchy could be about to change irreversibly, Grant Evans writes in The Asia-Pacific Journal. King Bhumibol is 86 and has been ailing since 2009.
In previous crisis, the revered monarch's intervention stopped further protests, prevented more bloodshed and resolved the conflict. Additionally, the royalist establishment and the military are concerned about Thaksin's close ties with the Crown Prince who doesn't share the same level of popular support as his father.
In short, by failing to give Prayuth far more time and leeway in restoring the kingdom's political equilibrium, Washington risks damaging its strong relationship with Thailand, possibly beyond the short term.
WASHINGTON should give Thailand's General Prayuth chan-ocha a break. On May 22, the army chief launched a coup against Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra.
Under the timeline announced by Prayuth last Friday, a new cabinet will be appointed by September this year but elections are unlikely to be held before October 2015.
Predictably, the US warned the military takeover could have negative implications for bilateral ties and called for early elections to reflect the will of the people and for the release of detained politicians.
In a show of displeasure, Washington terminated the already minimal military aid and called off some military exercises with Thailand.
At best, this politically correct approach risks being self-defeating for the US and, at worst, it could prompt Thailand to pivot closer towards China.
Washington should adopt a more nuanced stance towards the Thai coup for several reasons.
First, although in theory, military coups against an elected government should be condemned, history suggests the Thai variety, particularly after 2006, has been largely benign and after an interregnum, most coup leaders have returned power to civilians.
Second, Prayuth ended nearly seven months of political paralysis in the kingdom.
Protests erupted on Nov 4 last year after an amnesty bill was passed. Many believed this enactment was aimed at allowing Yingluck's brother, Thaksin Shinawatra and de facto leader of the Pheu Thai party, to return to Thailand without the risk of being jailed.
In August 2008, Thaksin left the kingdom to avoid appearing in court to face corruption charges.
In response to the protests, Yingluck called for elections on Feb 4 this year. Although 90% of polling stations were operating normally, according to the BBC, the Constitutional Court invalidated the elections on March 21 this year because voting wasn't held nationwide.
Third, continuing political stasis was damaging the Thai economy.
In the first quarter of this year, economic growth shrank by 2.1% from the previous quarter.
Tourism, which accounts for about 7% of the Thai economy, has been badly affected by the political turmoil. According to STR Global, hotel-occupancy rates from January to May this year fell by 15% from the same period last year.
Government spending was also constrained by the political imbroglio.
In an astonishing development, in February this year, state-owned Krung Thai Bank announced it would not lend money to the Finance Ministry for its rice-buying programme due to concerns about the Yingluck government's legal status.
Buying rice at a significantly higher than market price fortified political support for the Pheu Thai party among rice farmers but strained government finances.
Additionally, among 11 widely traded Asian currencies tracked by Bloomberg, the baht was among the worst performers over the last six months, an article by Bloomberg notes.
Fourth, Washington's call for early elections overlooks one salient fact.
Since 2001, Thaksin Shinawatra and his sister, Yingluck have won every single election held in Thailand – in 2001, 2005, 2007, 2011 and 2014.
Conversely, Thaksin was ousted by a coup in September 2006 while Yingluck resigned on May 7 after she was found guilty of an abuse of power by the Constitutional Court.
One major reason for Thailand's continuing political impasse since 2006 is the inability of the opposition party, the Democrats, to garner support from a majority of voters.
This has prompted the Democrats to call for electoral reforms as a pre-condition for participating in an election – a call that Prayuth appears ready to concede.
Fifth, Washington's hardline stance could prompt Bangkok to review its foreign policy priorities.
As The Nation noted in an article, "Bangkok has been pushed toward China, thanks to western condemnation of the coup, a stark contrast to Beijing's empathy … Thailand's foreign-relations horizon is looking quite intriguing."
Last month, a delegation of Thai military commanders visited China for talks on regional training and joint training exercises, a recent Reuters article noted.
Sixth, Thailand is the only Asean country that doesn't have competing claims against China in the South China Sea. This removes one possible impediment to closer ties between Bangkok and Beijing.
Moreover, with its rapidly growing economy and rising consumer income, China offers a faster-growing market for Thai goods and services than the US.
Seventh, the monarchy could be about to change irreversibly, Grant Evans writes in The Asia-Pacific Journal. King Bhumibol is 86 and has been ailing since 2009.
In previous crisis, the revered monarch's intervention stopped further protests, prevented more bloodshed and resolved the conflict. Additionally, the royalist establishment and the military are concerned about Thaksin's close ties with the Crown Prince who doesn't share the same level of popular support as his father.
In short, by failing to give Prayuth far more time and leeway in restoring the kingdom's political equilibrium, Washington risks damaging its strong relationship with Thailand, possibly beyond the short term.
