Changes in political alliances expected post-Election 2013
Major shifts in political alliances here may occur after Election 2013, which is still expected to be a toss-up between the ruling Barisan Nasional (BN) and Pakatan Rakyat (PR), Singapore’s The Straits Times reported today.
“Whatever the outcome on Polling Day, the story will not end here. If the PR wins more seats than the BN in Peninsular Malaysia, it is likely to woo BN component parties in Sabah and Sarawak to defect to it,” the English daily reported.
The paper noted that much of BN’s hopes to keep federal power now depends heavily on the polls outcome in Sabah and Sarawak, both states still long-considered the ruling party’s stronghold.
File photo of people lining up to cast their ballots in the Sarawak state election in 2011. Observers believe the coming general election will be too close to call.
“Bad losses for either coalition could worsen inherent faultlines in both and they could fall apart as easily as they were stitched together,” it added.
Attention after the polls would also then be centred on who would helm the country’s administration next, whether it would be PR’s Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim or BN chairman and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak, depending on the polls outcome.
“If Mr Najib fails to lead BN to a significantly better showing than his predecessor — and that means winning more than 140 seats and regaining at least one of the lost states — he will certainly be in danger of losing his job,” the paper wrote.
It predicted an uprising from beneath Umno and the BN pact against the first-term Prime Minister Najib, who will be, for the first time in his political career, leading the ruling coalition into a polls contest that observers believe would be too close to call.
“Umno will not hesitate to turn against him, and Malaysia could see a repeat of 2008 where a new prime minister takes over,” the paper said.
Former Prime Minister Tun Dr Mahathir Mohamad, an Umno veteran who still wields strong influence in the party, had recently said that in his personal view, Najib should hand over the reins of the administration to his deputy Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin to ensure a better mandate.
But numerous polls predictions and studies have shown that it may well be Najib’s popularity, policies introduced under his rule, his commitment to inclusiveness and the 1 Malaysia concept, and his numerous cash handouts to the country’s poor, that that would be driving a weakened BN into the polls.
“Having grouped these efforts under his (Najib) ‘1 Malaysia’ slogan, he has seen his personal popularity grow.
“The building of rural infrastructure and cash handouts have helped nurture a general feel-good factor,” ST wrote.
“Yet, for all the state largesse, the goodwill has stubbornly not extended from the prime minister to his party, a frustrating outcome for the BN operating in a parliamentary, not presidential, system,” it noted.
Not to be outdone, PR has also doled out a series of people-pleasing electoral pledges, such as the scrapping of excise duties on cars, free education, cheaper petroleum rates and in PR-led states like Penang and Selangor, measures like cash assistance for the elderly and free water have already been introduced.
With these factors in the mix, the Singapore daily predicted that the outcome of Election 2013, which at one time favoured Najib and BN, now remains “highly unpredictable”.
Citing Sabah as an example, the ST noted that a BN loss or even a narrow majority, was “almost certain” to see some of the pact’s smaller members leaving to join the crowded opposition front in the east Malaysian state.
“... and the coalition might end up a pale shadow of its once powerful self,” the paper said.
“But if the PR loses, it is certain that conservative elements in its Islamic component party PAS will step up demands to quit the alliance, which they see as hobbling their pursuit of a more stringent religious agenda,” it added.
In most predictions, political observers have agreed that the winning margin in Election 2013 was more than likely to be wafer-thin, wiping out BN’s hope of recapturing its coveted two-thirds parliamentary majority.
A bare minimum of 112 of the 222 parliamentary seats in the legislature would be needed for either side to form the federal government. PR currently holds 76 seats, but had trounced BN in terms of popular vote in the peninsula in Election 2008.
During the last polls, an initially confident BN was forced to leave the battle in shock after it suffered its worst-ever electoral performance, having lost its customary two-thirds majority in Parliament and five state governments to the opposition.
“The long wait is almost over, and as the armies gather, it is hard to discern which side will be left standing after the showdown. In the highly polarised environment, forecasts are to be treated with caution,” the ST said.
“Much can upend predictions in the hurly-burly of campaigning. What is certain is that Malaysia’s political landscape will be greatly changed after Polling Day, leaving more uncertainties in its wake.” - Agencies
